Here are some interesting links to the banking crisis and chance:
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/ taleb05/taleb05_index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_taleb
Nassim Taleb is a professor, mathematician and philosopher, in his last book, he has argued to the effect that the future can not predictions. Essential, he says that the logic is flawed behind the theory of probability, as this on the assumption is based, that is what happened in the past, often repeated, is. By raising are not considered, which is absolutely foolish, since it is these Ausnamen straight, which is important.
summarize: The world is too complex to calculate it, no matter how many factors we include, we can never rule out that they have not missed one yet.
has, unlike many bankers Nassim Taleb not appeared on statistics and risk assessment, but on common sense (he puts it, mutatis mutandis, as follows: "when I see that a pilot has taken no precautions, and flies into a storm cloud, I am assuming that it will crash "). This made him famous during the banking crisis (he has predicted that in 2006, including the failure of Fannie Mae), and his employer, he advised the rich.
In http://www.islam-projekte.com/kalifat/kalifat/webseite/ru_artikel/buecher_deutsch/verstand.pdf there is an interesting pamphlet which argued that Islam is the religion of reason, as If God as the "what" is defined, is a rejection of God would be absurd and against reason.
In this religious context, the discussion of Nassim Taleb, who themselves as religions are opposed to describing (he was so scientists), light as a new formulation of the phrase "Allahu akbar" - "God is greater" to see.
Man will never be able to involve all in one invoice, one unknown is never ruled out - God is greater than the understanding he gave to the people.
This is a starting point for plenty of speculation, an image at the end: If God is the container, then everything is affected in this hold can be smaller.
It seems to go under those who believe in the matter, but those who recognize that the matter is no small triumph, and man be. see
For an introduction to Islam: The knowledge and the Holy of SHNasr